Predictions for UFC 280

Some would be surprised that the only sport I enjoy watching is MMA.  It may seem out of character since I’m peaceful, loving, and have never been in a physical fight.  But people are dynamic and complex like that.  One of the positive aspects of MMA is that it shows how people can so dramatically change from trying to kill each other, to suddenly showing love and respect.  Plus it’s an exciting and skillful display of human performance and durability.  It’s like human chess with higher stakes.  And there are so many great stories and surprises.  Ironically, I’m pretty good at predicting who will win; it’s all about information, reading energy and momentum.

Tonight’s UFC event is full of exceptional talent.  I actually picked all the same favorites as the bookies before seeing the betting odds.  The most exciting match-up is the main event.  A brazilian ju-jitsu master versus a Dagestani sambo champion.  To practice my powers of prognostication, I see the latter being victorious.  Oliveira is great, and has defended his title against some solid opponents; but he has struggled more often than Makhachev, who just dominates everyone he faces.  Both have great ground-game and striking, but Islam is stronger and it’s his time to take the throne.

What some may see as an advantage for Oliveira, I actually see as a hindrance.  He just had corrective eye surgery so that he could see better.  He has been so good without it, feeling his way through a fight even with blurry vision.  But now it will be much clearer, and I think he actually needs more time to adjust to it.  Having had lasik surgery myself, I can say it was very distracting at first noticing all the details I couldn’t see before!

For those basic reasons, I see Islam adding an impressive win tonight to his already exceptional resume, and reigning for a while as the new king of the light-weights, just like his teammate Khabib was.  I’d love to see who would win between Makhachev and Chimaev!  They’re usually in different weight classes, but they’re similar enough in size and skill that it would be a hell of a fight!